Weekly Roundup | 11.21.2023
Top headlines and news impacting Latin America, Africa and Southeast Asia commercial real estate.
📰 Javier Milei Wins Argentina’s Runoff Against Radical Far-Left Peronist
Receiving a decisive 56% of the votes, Milei has a clear mandate to implement his market-friendly agenda which includes dollarizing the economy and other stabilizing interventions. The margin is the widest in a presidential race in Argentina since 1983.
📰 Oil is the Better Bet for Latin America Over Failed Renewable Investments
Latin America has weak institutions who can’t manage inefficient renewable energy infrastructure which require relatively complex subsidies to make viable. Oil and gas returns are super-high and represent the better energy security investment for the region.
📰 Mexico Might Reduce Weekly Work Hour Maximums to 40 From 48
The reduction would be affected through a change in the Mexican Constitution and have a detrimental impact on the construction and commercial real estate sectors. The amendment would also increase mandatory rest days from one to two days per week. Overtime pay would kick in at the 40 hour mark, and not the 48 hour mark as is presently the case. The average construction worker works 51 hours per week.
📰 Mexico’s AMLO Has United the Country Against Him
There is virtual unanimity that AMLO’s policies are a disaster and failure among academics, businessmen and political commentators who fear the country’s democracy and economy are in real danger. He has also turned Mexico against America which seems foolish given the dependence of Mexico on the number one economy in the world.
📰 Colombia’s GDP Falls for the First Time Since COVID Lockdowns Ended
Colombia’s GDP fell .3% in the third quarter, in the second quarter the economy grew at only .4%. In the quarter, construction contracted the most at 8%, followed by manufacturing which dropped 6.2%, investments fell 33.5%, imports fell 21.5% and exports grew by 4.2%.
📰 Nigeria Receives Refineries Investment Pledge from Saudi Arabia
Nigeria’s President Tinubu has scrapped fuel subsidies and taken other bold measures to unify the country’s currency which currently has a few exchange rates. The Middle East, Europe and South Africa will have to step up to assist Africa moving forward. China is collapsing and Washington DC has done an abysmal job in Africa over the decades and should be shut out until it is reformed and reeducated on Africa cooperation.
📰 South Africa’s Busiest Port is an Inefficient Mess
The Port of Durban is the busiest in Southern Africa and congestion is causing shipping companies to begin charging clients surcharges due to operational delays they experience unloading cargo. Ships take 20 days or more to offload cargo which is three to four times longer than it should take given the volumes. The ANC-government managed port ranks 365 out of 370 in port efficiency worldwide by the World Bank.
📰 Nigeria Will Soon “Finish” an Expressway it Began in 1999
The Lagos-Ibadan Expressway will open soon but after 24 years of delays caused from corruption and mismanagement it’s a reminder for investors to take large infrastructure announcements involving poorly managed countries, like Nigeria has been, with a grain of salt. To give an idea of the corruption and waste involved, the reconstruction contract awarded in 2015 was valued at around $1 billion for the 127 kilometer Lagos-Ibadan expressway. In the same year, a similar contract was awarded for the 1,028 kilometer (10x longer) Lagos-Abidjan road project costing about the same.
📰 Oryx Properties Buys Dunes Mall in Namibia for $35 Million
RMB supplied the debt which covered most of the purchase cost meaning Oryx, the largest property fund in Namibia, likely cross collateralized other properties to get such a high LTV and low cost of capital. The equity came from a successful rights issue Oryx listed on the NSX earlier this year. Oryx hopes to grow its property portfolio to $250 million of NAV by 2025 in Namibia. Dunes Mall is in Walvis Bay and has around 80 shops and 27,000 m² (i.e., 290,000 ft²) of GLA.
📰 Thailand Pitches a New Land Bridge Shipping Route
The new PM has branded himself the nation’s salesman and delights in travelling the world pitching his country to foreign investors. His most ambitious pitch is a $28 billion land bridge through a narrow portion of Thailand which would alleviate one of the busiest shipping routes, the Malacca Strait. The land bridge would cut transport duration by four days and lower shipping costs 15%.
📰 A Strong 6.7 Magnitude Earthquake Rocked The Philippines on Friday
Seven are dead, primarily from falling debris, on the southern island of Mindanao. Roofs collapsed on two malls which are temporarily closed. The malls are the SM City General Santos Mall and Robinsons GenSan Mall.
📰 Taiwan Battery Maker Building $800 Million Plant in Canada
The Asian battery maker E-One Moli Energy, of Taiwan Cement Group, will build the plant in western Canada to make 135 million lithium cells per annum, making it the largest such facility in Canada. The Canadian government will contribute around 20% of the cost to construct the facility. Concerned taxpayers cite Trudeau’s frequent multimillion dollar handouts of buckets of cash to corporations to expand or stay in Canada. They would prefer cutting red tape and lowering taxes rather than handing over so much cash.
